Facebook's global ad revenue expected to exceed $100bn

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Its revival since 2022 has been fuelled by APAC advertisers targeting Western consumers, alongside the fruits of AI innovation and a pivot away from targeting in favour of outcomes.

Alex Brownsell, head of content, Warc Media, and author of the report, says: “In this Warc Media report, we prise apart Facebook’s latest advertising revenue and user behaviour trends from those of its Meta parent company, and explore the platform’s latest revival in its quest to win a new Gen Z audience.”

Providing evidence-based insights on the challenges and opportunities Facebook has to offer, this latest Platform Insights report from Warc Media offers an overview of the key data points that advertisers need to know about the platform spanning investment, consumption and performance.

Investment: Facebook’s advertising revenue to cross $100bn in 2024

While Meta does not split revenue by platform, Warc Media forecasts show that Facebook’s Q3 2024 ad revenue grew 13.2% year-on-year, albeit slower than parent Meta (19.0%).

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Facebook is on track to earn $100.1bn in advertising revenue this year, rising to $112.8bn in 2026, making it only the second media brand – after Google in 2020 – to exceed $100bn in global ad revenue.

But its share of the global social market is dwindling. In 2013, almost nine in 10 social ad dollars went to Facebook (88.9%). By 2025, ad spend on Facebook will have halved to 38.2%, with Instagram and TikTok, in particular, fast catching up. 

Innovation in AI and commerce is drawing retailers of all sizes to boost spend on Facebook. Investment by retailers is set to top $20bn in 2024, per Warc Media forecasts. Meta studies claim that AI tools, such as Advantage+ Shopping Campaign (ASC), drive a 12% improvement in ROAS in two years. More than a third (38%) of Meta spend studied by Fospha went to Advantage+, reflecting a strategic shift of brands prioritising “ease of management” and greater performance gains from AI automation. 

Analysis by Warc Media has found that Asian brands are spending more on advertising on Meta platforms, including Facebook, but are targeting users in other regions. This is a trend that has accelerated over the last 12 months.

In the US, advertising spend on Facebook is set to grow to $39.5bn in 2024, up 11.6% year-on-year.  However, ad revenue growth will slow substantially in 2025 and 2026, per WARC Media’s latest forecast data. This is in stark contrast to Instagram, which is expected to achieve near-20% growth over the next two years. But, while Facebook’s growth has slowed, its advertising business remains twice the size of the US OTT market, four times that of TikTok and commands a 29% share of US retailer spend, according to Sensor Tower.

Consumption: Facebook’s global advertising audience exceeds 2.2 billion. In the US, more than three-quarters of adults use the platform

Facebook is one of the most popular digital platforms in the world, with a global advertising audience of 2.2 billion and 3 billion monthly users.

More than three-quarters of US adults use Facebook, according to a survey by GWI, with nine in 10 Americans using it to keep up with friends and family. Yet Facebook has long faced “age issue” stereotypes, and trails behind Instagram, TikTok and Snapchat in usage by Gen Z in the US.

To attract a new Gen Z audience for long-term growth, Facebook is prioritising creators, groups (for communities and information), long-form video (such as Stories and Reels), and moving away from news and political content.

Facebook ranks among the top three commercial media brands for reach in the UK across all age groups, and sits in second place for all adults, behind only ITV. In Asia Pacific, Facebook is the most influential platform for purchases in APAC, per GWI.

Performance: AI brings greater power to Facebook  

Trust is likely to prove a key criterion for ad spend in media’s algorithmic era, as marketers cede control to AI tools to deliver their desired campaign goals.

Facebook scored highly in a Kantar survey of global marketers on its data trustworthiness, with only Alphabet-owned Google and YouTube doing better.

Over a million advertisers used Meta’s AI tools in the last month. Meta wants advertisers to trust its AI tools to help ads reach the parts untouched by traditional targeting methods as well as for creative diversity. 

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Some performance-driven advertisers are pivoting towards “full-funnel” tactics on Meta platforms including Facebook. Research indicates that balancing conversions with upper-funnel goals (e.g. reach and awareness) on Facebook can be more cost efficient, as well as stimulating future demand.

Brands using Image Generation saw a 7% increase in conversions, according to the company, and early tests by Fospha suggest that Meta’s AI tools such as Advantage+ are helping advertisers optimise for conversions and maximise ad spend returns. 

Platform Insights: Facebook is part of a series of reports exclusive to Warc Media subscribers, which include an overview of platform investments, media consumption and performance insights. This latest report follows Platform Insights: Pinterest, TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Snapchat and Spotify.