Reserve Bank likely to cut rates by 25 bps say economists

Source: Reuters.

This is according to 19 economists surveyed in the past week. All were unanimous in saying the Sarb would cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.50% on 30 January 2025.

A slim majority in the poll said the central bank would cut by another 25 bps to 7.25% in March.

As US President Donald Trump's new administration settles into office, South Africa's Reserve Bank was expected to ease interest rates gently this year as it awaits clarification on his proposed tariffs and other policies.

Median forecasts showed the bank would wait until the third quarter to cut again by 25 bps, its last expected move this year and through 2027. In a December survey, a third cut was expected in May.

Johannes Khosa, economist at the Nedbank Group Economic Unit, was one of the economists who expected only two 25 bps cuts this year to put the repo rate at 7.25% by end-2025.

"We believe Trump's policies, if implemented, will be inflationary. This will cause inflation to be sticky and cause the US Fed to reduce rates slower or even stop cutting. The Sarb will have to follow suit, scaling down the cuts in order to maintain the interest rate differential," Khosa said.

The rand weakened on Monday, after Trump announced a flurry of policy changes following his inauguration.

On Tuesday, he vowed to hit the European Union with tariffs and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on Chinese imports.

The US Federal Reserve is due to meet next week and is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady as it also keeps an eye on Trump's administration and challenges from its own bond market.

Inflation in South Africa rose for the second month in a row in December, yet at 3.0% year-on-year it was still below the mid-point of the Reserve Bank's 3%-6% comfort level. The poll suggested it would average 4.1% this year and quicken to 4.5% next year.

The South African economy was expected to grow 1.7% this year and 1.9% next.

"We think there's enough evidence to suggest the improvements seen in the macroeconomic backdrop will continue this year," said David Omojomolo, Africa analyst at Capital Economics.

"The effects of load shedding and logistics constraints should continue to fade, while the agriculture sector, which was a big factor behind the GDP contraction in Q3, should soon rebound," said Omojomolo.

In this poll, Capital Economics was joint most bullish on growth, forecasting 2.3% for South Africa this year.