South African citizens continue to have profound and prolonged concerns about several pivotal issues. Unemployment has consistently taken the top spot over 20 years since 2003 as citizens greatest concern (Figure 1). According to data from Statistics South Africa the official unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2024 has increased to 32.9%. This is marginally up by only 0.8% from the first quarter in 2023.
Analysts believe that the true level of unemployment when one takes into consideration people that have given up looking for work and dropped out of the labour market would be closer to 42%. This figure rises significantly to 61% when looking at youth unemployment. These high levels of unemployment are attributed to several causes, including apartheid, low economic growth, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the recent electricity blackouts. However, the key factor must be the inability of the government to create the socio-political environment for any form of upward movement in South Africa's economy.
At the start of democracy in South Africa in 2004, economic growth showed promise with the restructuring of the economy and macroeconomic stability, resulting in a high of 5% in 2005. However, over the last decade, the growth rate has remained largely below 1% and lower than the population growth rate resulting in many more South Africans becoming impoverished. Crime and safety have fluctuated over the last 20 years but generally have remained the second highest concern for citizens. In contrast, corruption has sharply surged as a public concern and is now ranking third in the national priority list (Figure 1).
Service delivery, though not as high as expected considering the rolling blackouts, the decline in quality of service delivery and the dilapidated condition of infrastructure has steadily increased in importance, indicating a potential spike if specific aspects of service delivery remain unaddressed. Citizens satisfaction with government performance over this time period has systematically declined, whether it be in relation to providing social grants, electricity or water and sanitation, while only about 10% of the population has been satisfied with what the government has done in terms of job creation (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Satisfaction with government performance & institutional trust 1998 - 2021
This information emanating from the Human Sciences Research Council’s (HSRC) South African Social Attitude Survey (SASAS) sheds light on the pressing concerns of the South African public over a period of more than 17 years, highlighting the need for effective strategies to address unemployment, crime, corruption, and service delivery. Understanding these priorities is crucial for policymakers and leaders to effectively respond to the needs and aspirations of the population. A key question is – will citizens’ unanswered concerns be addressed by the Government of National Unity post South Africa's national election in May 2024?
Predicting election outcomes and consumer behaviour through voter insights
Although many of the polls proved invaluable in providing a longitudinal perspective of voting patterns just prior to the national elections, their ability to understand the reasons for support of a political party or to predict future outcomes is limited. Understanding voter’s values and emotions and its strategic application provides invaluable insights into voting preferences but also in understanding the key factors that drive their perceptions on governance and service delivery. This provides invaluable insights into understanding people’s behaviour and the messages required to bring about change. Insights gleaned from the University of Cape Town's Unilever Institute in 2000 stressed the need for a deeper understanding of voter characteristics and the processing of this data to create coherent patterns and generating insights that dive into the intricate facets of the human psyche.
More recent research by Teddy Langschmidt of Qi Value Systems has shown that decision-making by citizens is not solely driven by hard facts. Instead, it's the delicate balance between rationality and emotions that holds sway. Relying exclusively on raw data often leads to an inaccurate understanding of people’s decisions and behaviour. Understanding the complexities of human emotions and relationships becomes pivotal, especially considering the phenomenon of motivated cognition. Motivated cognition is when people’s pre-existing desires and emotions prejudice how they perceive, interpret, and remember information.
An intriguing revelation surfaces through the mapping of emotions – people’s emotions have a predictive prowess. Emotions and personality traits significantly impact behaviour and decision-making, facilitating the mapping of voter and consumer emotional landscapes. The ratio between positive and negative emotions emerges as a potent predictor of future outcomes and purchasing behaviour, especially in the context of political perceptions, brand preferences and consumer loyalty.
To test the application of defining the values and emotions of voters and identifying their personas, a small non-representative sample of online interviews conducted in 2021 across predominantly urban areas of South Africa was done. The heat maps presented in Figure 2 illustrate the personas of the three largest political parties at that time - African National Congress (ANC), Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). What the heat map shows is how different the perceived personas of the ANC and EFF are to those of the DA. Supporting the notion presented by some political analysts that the forming of a coalition between the ANC and DA, because their voter populations are mutually exclusive, would enable a stable partnership.
Figure 2: Personas of three largest political parties in South Africa - ANC, DA & EFF
This is in contrast to the significant similarities between the personas of the ANC and EFF who are seen as influential and self-confident in their leadership roles. Negative traits identified of the ANC and EFF included them being insincere, dangerous, dishonest and unreliable. On the other hand, the DA’s positive traits were also being influential but included being knowledgeable, intellectual and motivated. Some of the negative trends were similar to that of the ANC and EFF but the most prominent was being weak and out of touch. The application of these methods to understanding the characteristics of voters for different political parties through the conducting of nationally representative surveys could provide invaluable insights into future election results.
Turning insights into actionable predictions
It should not be surprising that the influence of people’s values and emotions transcends traditional demographics. Values become the driving force behind decisions—be it career choices, partner selection, brand loyalty or political affiliations. Their impact outweighs conventional demographic analyses, significantly shaping the national election's dynamics and defining consumer brand preferences.
Before and post the national and local elections, the focus should be on decoding the perceptions, archetypes, behaviours, and emotional associations of voters to political parties. Emotionally charged cognitive attributes emerge as a powerful force in forming political affiliations and informing brand loyalty showcased through the mappings of emotions.
GeoScope’s groundbreaking research on values and emotions provides a powerful predictive tool, not only for brand growth but also in understanding and predicting voting patterns in future elections. In this information-laden age, the true worth lies not in the abundance of data but in the use of innovative methods to visualise and interpreting these insights. Emotional and cognitive mappings serve as a guiding compass, empowering political parties, business executives and brand managers alike with a nuanced understanding of human behaviour and choices, potentially steering the trajectory of the South Africa under the recently formed Government of National Unity to begin to address the concerns of South African citizens and lay a path for economic growth.
